Arsenal (@1.4) vs Aston Villa (@7.5)
23-09-2019

Our Prediction:

Arsenal will win

Arsenal – Aston Villa Match Prediction | 23-09-2019 11:30

Nobody can really stop an elite player like him. Aston Villa managed to keep Sebastien Haller quiet on Monday, and that should improve their confidence. For Villa, stopping Aubameyang is a side-goal. Villa have shown that they will be a challenge for Aubameyang, but it really is a matter of time. Mings and Engels will try, and there is some hope for AVFC. If they can hold tight for 90 minutes, then there will be no better proof of Villas defensive credentials without being typically defensive. Understat have Haller at 3.21 xG while Aubameyang has racked up 2.53 xG.

Arsenal is listed as a favorite here, as they should be. They have won against Eintracht Frankfurt 3:0 which is a perfect reminder for everyone of how good Arsenal can be. They only have 8 points from 5 games. Currently they are 7 points behind the league leaders, Liverpool. They are a strong team with many goal-scoring options and a solid tradition behind them. Besides that, their Premier League season didnt start well.

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At all. The name Arsenal should strike fear into Villa fans worldwide. In the new modern era of football (marked at about 2015), Villa havent been able to question Arsenal. Youll have to recall Gabby Agbonlahor, Antonio Luna, Olof Mellberg and more to consider the last time Villa threatened Arsenal. Simply put, Aston Villa havent enjoyed a good match against the north Londoners in a long while.

The Hornets swarmed, the box was overloaded, Cleverley scored, and Watford ruined Emerys plan - which had worked up until this point. Arsenal could still play it short, and didnt have to pass it within the box under a press, but they passed it within the box, limited the passing range for the defender and succumbed to pressure.

If Arsenal start to play softly with the ball from the back, Aston Villa should consider it as a pressing trigger and aim to win the ball in the box, or push the line against Aubameyang to contain the pitch by winning an aerial duel. Its about forcing errors, or applying the pressure for unforced errors to occur. Back to the goal kick. Its about occupying headspace. Pressing isnt necessarily about winning the ball.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Wesley will start up top and will be expected to lead the press. His return will be a small blessing to a Villa side in need of performances from the wing. Villas attack will need galvanising and the returning Trezeguet should assist with that. The Egyptian is second to Wesley in xG, and offers a more direct threat than Jota or Ahmed Elmohamady.

Arsenal cannot do this, and last weeks game is the highlight of that. Villas main goal will be taking advantage of an Arsenal side that tries to be defensive without having any interest at all in being defensive. Simply deploying a low-block doesnt make a team defensive, controlling a game well, does. Holding onto the ball, playing out from the back, avoiding errors - these are the hallmarks of a defensive team in 2019.

The venue is the Emirates Stadium in London. Arsenal are seen as favorites in this game and are expected to dominate this fixture. In this match preview, I will try to provide the best betting tips and correct score predictions based on my analysis of these two teams. Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction arrives ahead of the English Premier League 6th round game. The referee in this game will be John Moss. This game will be played on the 22nd of September.

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Well focus on goal kicks here. Arsenal have enjoyed using short goal kicks since the relaxing of the goal kick rule. Since goalkeepers can now play the ball within the box, Arsenal have allowed Bernd Leno and his defenders to liberally restart play with a short goal kick regardless of opposition intent. With Arsenal 2-0 up and facing a high press, Leno and his defenders restarted play with a short goal-kick.

In the scatter graph above, produced by the excellent Experimental361, we can see that Aston Villa head the graph and fall into the competent but busy category when defensive effectiveness is highlighted. This shows that Aston Villa, more than most teams, are capable of absorbing shots. Villa are giving away around 18 shots a game, but are capable of accepting 15 before a goal is scored. A well-organised defence like Villas is able to restrict shooting space in the box and act on reflex, there is plenty of reason to have faith in that. Teams arent simply being wasteful against the Villa either - Tyrone Mings is the league leader in shots blocked per 90 minutes and Tom Heaton in goal is a superb shot-stopper.