Justin Gaethje (@1.53) vs Donald Cerrone (@2.5)

Our Prediction:

Justin Gaethje will win

Justin Gaethje – Donald Cerrone Match Prediction | 15-09-2019 01:00

This will be Cerrones fifth career fight in Canada. Cerrone is a versatile fighter who is a well decorated kick boxer, has a deep background in Muay Thai and is comfortable on the canvas to the point he has 17 career submission victories. A total of 27 of Cerrones 36 victories have come by some sort of stoppage. Cerrone obviously isnt wasting any time stepping back in the octagon, as this will be his fourth fight of the year and hes earned performance bonuses in each of his last four fights. Donald Cerrone enters this fight with a 36-12 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by submission. A polished wrestler who almost always has the edge on the canvas, Cerrone closes range well with those leg kicks and usually gets the fight where he wants it. Cerrone has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a June loss to Tony Ferguson. Cerrone is averaging 1.29 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35 percent. Cerrone is coming off a second round knockout loss that was forced to be stopped after he blew his nose and his eye swelled shut. Cerrone ate 104 significant strikes in the bout and was running out of answers well before the fight was stopped. A tough fighter who clearly isnt backing down from the competition, Cerrones work rate and willingness to take on whomever is why hes popular with fans. Cerrone is averaging 4.2 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent.

The last time he stepped in the cage, Gaethje earned a victory in the 1st round against Edson Barboza by stoppage. In the lightweight division, he is 52nd in strikes with 351 and 229th out of all fighters in the UFC. Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje comes into the cage with 20 wins and 2 losses. The Arvada, CO standout is 30 years old, weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'11" tall. He has a 70.0" reach and fights in the lightweight division. Gaethje has a total of 4 fights in the UFC.

The wounds from that bloody battle have barely had time to heal, and while his willingness to fight anyone, anywhere, has seen Cerrone write himself into UFC folklore, Cowboys camp has to be concerned that hes not at 100% this weekend. Cerrone is also an accomplished wrestler, and the older man may have to take this fight to the canvas to get the win he needs. Cowboy has struggled against opponents in the past whove applied serious pressure, not least in his last bout against Ferguson.

Gaethje will be wise to throw his thunderous leg kicks to slow Cerrone down and force the pressure. If Gaethje walks Cerrone down like he did Barboza he could easily overwhelm him and finish the fight quickly but Cerrones experience will be crucial. This should be a stand-up war with Gaethje having a power advantage and Cerrone a technique advantage.

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When it comes to strike accuracy, Justin Gaethje ranks 204th among fighters in the UFC and 35th in the lightweight division connecting on 54.7% of the strikes he has thrown. He ranks 34th among fighters in the division and 155th among fighters in the UFC for significant strikes with 348. Of those significant strikes, 190 of them were aimed at the head while 33 of them were aimed at the midsection which ranks 45th and 61st respectively among fighters in the division.

In regard to experience in the UFC, Gaethje has 4 fights which means he has less UFC experience, while Cerrone has compiled a total of 30 fights in the Octagon. In relation to reach, Gaethje measures 70.0" while Cerrone measures out at 73.0" meaning Gaethje is going to want to close the space so Donald Cerrone won't be able to use it to his advantage. Gaethje is the younger combatant in this fight at 30 years old while Cerrone is the older combatant in this fight at 36 years old. Justin Gaethje has the better eye for striking, landing 54.7% of his strikes which means Donald Cerrone will look to be on the watch for big shots. When it comes to overall mixed martial arts experience, Gaethje has 20 wins and 2 losses while Donald Cerrone is the owner of an overall fight record of 36 wins and 12 losses. When looking at this fight with Justin Gaethje and Donald Cerrone, you will want to know how these two fighters stack up to one another. In relation to physical attributes, let us start by taking a look at Justin Gaethje who is 5'11", while the opponent on the other side of the cage is 6'1".

Gaethje, set for Saturday, September 14th in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The main card streams live on ESPN+ at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT, with prelims also on ESPN+ at 5 PM ET/2 PM PT. The main event is a five-round lightweight bout between highly entertaining contenders Justin Gaethje and Donald Cerrone. Check out Bloody Elbows pre-fight, fight night, and post-fight coverage for UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs.

A likely inhabitant of that spot is the winner in Vancouver on September 14, between top-5 contenders Justin Gaethje and Donald Cerrone; on one side, a fighter who seemed to find a ceiling on his extraordinarily violent style early in his UFC tenure only to shatter it and remain in the top 5 anyway, and on the other, one whos maintained absurd staying-power as a borderline-elite presence despite sustaining one-sided losses from time-to-time that would spell the end of that status for anyone else.

Even if he was at full heath, this would be an extremely tough night for Cerrone. His three-fight win streak following the birth of his son last year suggested he was getting better with age, but Ferguson showed Gaethje exactly how to beat him. Cowboy is a warrior who never gives up, but Gaethje is the favourite with the best betting sites and has the tools to get himself back into title contention here. The Highlight isnt as technically strong as Ferguson, but his forward pressure and punching power is going to give Cerrone a tough time in the Octagon.

Where Darren Till and Rafael dos Anjos just pushed him back and smashed him, Leon Edwards and Jorge Masvidal solved his approach with relative ease (Masvidal with his careful distance-closing and jab, Edwards with his southpaw kicking and counterpunching game). That said, those weaknesses still exist, and he tends to lose catastrophically when his singular tool to manage the distance is successfully navigated. Cerrone is also one of the more defined momentum-fighters in MMA, for better or worse; his attack snowballs heavily and his opponents tend not to mount comebacks if it piles up, but his losses tend to be extremely lopsided beatings before Cerrone finds opportunities to do anything of effect (and a bad first round often portends a bad fight for him). Cerrone has a number of traits that define a problematic matchup, from southpaws to good body-hitters (where Cerrones body is historically quite fragile) to sound pressure-boxers, and he hasnt really shown an answer to any of those yet. Whether Justin Gaethje can exploit those tendencies is yet to be seen.

Gaethjes pressure game is quietly one of the soundest in MMA, in fact; his feet are extremely disciplined in cutting his opponent off, he can feint forward and jab to push his opponent back, and hes a very good counterpuncher (often of the catch-and-pitch variety) which doesnt allow his opponents to just swarm him and get off the fence. Combined with his underrated athleticism for the division (he might be the best athlete at 155, in fact, between his freakish durability and pace, as well as the power in his hands), Gaethjes technical game has been an ordeal to deal with for each of his five UFC opponents win or lose. Gaethjes game of pure pressure is deceptively thoughtful; fighters who fit the aggressive-swarmer archetype tend to be underrated technically and defensively, and Gaethje is no exception.

Gaethje is averaging 8.50 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Gaethje can give and take a beating, and he loves coming forward with pressure, making his opponent uncomfortable and keeping them on their toes. Gaethje has shown throughout his career that the striking power and the chin is there for him to hold his own with anybody standing up, and he proved that even more in his last bout. Justin Gaethje enters this fight with a 20-2 record and has won 85 percent of his fights by knockout. At this point, Gaethje seems to be 100 percent dedicated to his standup and wants to head hunt. This will be Gaethjes first career fight outside of the United States. Gaethje has earned performance bonuses in all five of his UFC fights. It was a risky game plan, but its what we expect from Gaethje, and he showed just how powerful his hands are if he lands clean flesh. Gaethje is fresh off probably the biggest win of his career and the most impressive, as he stood in there with a dangerous strike in Barboza, ate the leg kicks and landed a nasty right hand that knocked the lights out. Gaethje has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a March win over Edson Barboza. However, Gaethje comes from a wrestling background and has a trainer who works relentlessly on technique, so at some point youd think that would come into play. Gaethje is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent.

Gaethje is one of few fan-favourites to rival Cerrones notoriety. However, he got a taste of his own medicine in getting knocked out by Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier but got back to old ways in starching James Vick and Edson Barboza to set up this bout with Cerrone. Every fight is technical chaos and he maintained his reputation in his UFC debut by knocking Michael Johnson extending his unbeaten record and unholy knockout rate.

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