Roger Federer (@1.23) vs Dominic Thiem (@4.2)
10-11-2019

Our Prediction:

Roger Federer will win

Roger Federer – Dominic Thiem Match Prediction | 10-11-2019 15:00

Considering his opponent, Roger Federer may not enter this match as the favourite. It was a dominant start by Federer as he won the opening set 6-0 but lost the second set. Roger Federer has not been active during the clay court legs in recent years and that has been evident throughout this tournament. Federer looked very rusty in the previous round as the Swiss Master had to battle for 3 sets to get the win. The third set was a very close contest where Federer held his nerve and won via a tiebreaker. Federer has lost some pace and athleticism which has its biggest impact on clay.

Marin Cilic has beaten Novak Djokovic twice, once during Djokovics slow decline at the end of 2016 at the Paris Masters and once last year at Queens just before Djokovics full resurgence in late 2018. Djokovic has since claimed three victories against the Croat who has had a marked dip in form. Expect two hotly contested sets with at least one tiebreak. Cilic has been far from his best, but his gritty three set win against an inspired Laslo Djere indicates he could trouble Djokovic. Djokovic has been out of sorts since his Australian Open victory, but his level at Madrid has been high.

Roger Federer VS Dominic Thiem

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I think after him, there is a small group of players which can be, which can go very far at each clay-court tournament as well and I think Im in this group as well. he said, pre-tournament. Despite wins over the Spaniard yearly, Thiem still sees the clay scene as Nadal and then a bunch of others below including himself. His win over Fabio Fognini in the previous round extended his winning streak to seven, with the most notable win coming against Rafael Nadal in that run to the Barcelona title.

At the 2016 US Open, he had to fight past Kyle Edmund in the early rounds and dropped the first set of the final against Novak Djokovic before his free-flowing game caught fire. Roger Federer reportedly calls Wawrinka The Diesel because it takes him time in tournaments and matches to warm up. Wawrinka, however, is unlikely to find his game in time to slow Nadals momentum. Nadals relentlessness as a competitor and willingness to fight for every point makes it hard for Wawrinka to find the time in a match to play himself into perfect form. Wawrinka and Nadal have played 20 times. Even Nadal can be rocked back on his heels by clean, flat hitting as Fabio Fognini proved at the 2015 US Open. Wawrinka has only won three of those matches, and only one of his wins came on clay.

Roger Federer v Dominic Thiem: Betting Tips & Match Predictions for Nitto ATP World Tour Finals, Group Bjorn Borg

Thiem has been in outstanding form recently as he won the ATP Barcelona Open prior to arriving in Madrid. On the other side of the coin, Dominic Thiem had an emphatic win in the previous round as he eliminated Fabio Fognini in straight sets. Thiem made the final of the French Open last season which should give him great confidence in his ability to play on clay. Thiem is one of the top clay court players and he has proven that label by producing strong performances at tournaments like the French Open. It was a very strong display by Dominic Thiem as the Austrian won 100% of his service games and 2 return games to set up the victory.

If Federer can find a way to win against Thiem, he will enter into his semifinal match, even if it is against Novak Djokovic, brimming with confidence. Against Thiem, he will have to execute this game plan perfectly. On the clay of Madrid, Thiem will have more time to line up his big shots and it will be easier for him to run down balls. Federers total commitment to aggressive, all-court tennis even in tight moments was clear. Thiem played excellent hard-hitting tennis in Indian Wells, favoring power over placement, content to blast balls up the middle of the court forcing Federer back from his preferred position hugging the baseline.

Roger Federer at 37 is in the twilight of his glorious career. There is no doubt that if he maintains this form and plays in many more finals, he will be extremely motivated to catch Jimmy Connors record of 109 titles. The fact that he keeps winning and competing at the biggest events speaks volumes not just of his talent but of his ambition and self-drive.

Zverev and Tsitsipas are both proven top contenders, but both have also been tipped as possible future world number ones. Aside from on court fireworks there has also been off court friction between Zverev and Tsitsipas. Zverev is the defending Madrid champion, but Tsitsipas has the form and momentum at the moment. Their rivalry is in its early stages. They split their two previous meetings last year; Zverev winning in straight sets in Washington and Tsitsipas squeezing out a tight three set victory in the Rogers Cup. While Zverev has achieved a better career high ranking and has more big titles to his name, Tsitsipas has been the exponentially more consistent performer in the last six months. Zverevs scratchy three set win against Herbert Hurkacz and Tsitsipas smooth win over Fernando Verdasco illustrate the difference in the level these two are currently displaying.